The Spatial-Temporal Epidemiology Analysis of Tuberculosis Disease in Pakistan

Abstract

Despite significant progress, Tuberculosis (TB) remains a severe national health issue in Pakistan. However, very few studies have been done on the spatial-temporal appraisal of tuberculosis in Pakistan. The current research is based on the TB disease dataset obtained from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics from 2015 to 2019. The study has focused on assessing Spatial epidemiology statistics to measure the TB Incidence rate (IR) (TB cases per 100,000 population) to identify the characteristics variations and spatial-temporal patterns. The global and local spatial autocorrelation detected the clusters of TB disease IR, Male, Female, and total TB patients at the provincial and territorial levels in Pakistan, by the Moran’s Index and Local indicator of spatial association (LISA) using GeoDa software and ArcGIS tool. Results show that the IR in Pakistan exhibited a progressive decrease from 2015 to 2018 but showed an unexpected increase in 2019. It is also critically analyzed that the Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK), and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) provinces and territories were at high risk with a higher rate of IR. Despite this, the fact is that the global spatial autocorrelation has not been identified across provincial and territorial levels in Pakistan. In the five-year study, datasets have been observed the individual provinces and territories that indicate negative local spatial autocorrelation of Low-high provinces and territories, such as Balochistan and Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT).