The Spatial-Temporal Epidemiology Analysis of Tuberculosis Disease in Pakistan

  • Iqra Fatima Department of Basic Sciences & Related Studies, MUET, Jamshoro, Pakistan
  • Wajid Ali Shaikh Department of Mathematics & Statistics, QUEST, Nawabshah, Pakistan
  • A. G. Shaikh Department of Basic Sciences & Related Studies, QUEST, Nawabshah
  • Asif Ali Shaikh Department of Basic Sciences & Related Studies, MUET, Jamshoro, Pakistan
  • Saifullah Abro Department of Basic Sciences & Related Studies, MUET, Jamshoro, Pakistan
Keywords: Tuberculosis, Incidence rate, Spatial autocorrelation, Temporal trends, Pakistan

Abstract

In spite of significant progress, Tuberculosis (TB) remains a severe national health issue in Pakistan. However, very few studies have been done on the spatial-temporal appraisal of tuberculosis in Pakistan. The current research is based on the TB disease dataset obtained from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics from 2015 to 2019. The study has focused on assessing Spatial epidemiology statistics and spatial autocorrelation to detect the cluster of TB disease incidence rate (IR) for New, Male, Female and total TB patients at the provincial and territorial levels in Pakistan. The spatial epidemiology statistics and spatial autocorrelation have been measured the temporal trends of TB IR as per 100,000 population. The global and local spatial autocorrelation of TB IR has been analyzed by the global Moran's I and Anselin's Local Moran's using GeoDa software and ArcGIS tool.  Results show that the IR in Pakistan exhibited a progressive decrease from 2015 to 2018 but showed an unexpected increase in 2019. It is also critically analyzed that the Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Azad Jammu Kashmir provinces and territories (Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) were at high risk with a higher rate of IR. Despite this, the fact is that the global spatial autocorrelation has not been identified across provincial and territorial levels in Pakistan. In the five-year study, datasets have been observed the individual provinces and territories that indicate negative local spatial autocorrelation of Low-high provinces and territories, such as Balochistan and Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT).

Author Biographies

Iqra Fatima, Department of Basic Sciences & Related Studies, MUET, Jamshoro, Pakistan

MS student in Applied Mathematics 

Department of Basic Sciences & Related Studies

Wajid Ali Shaikh, Department of Mathematics & Statistics, QUEST, Nawabshah, Pakistan

Department of Mathematics and Statistics

A. G. Shaikh, Department of Basic Sciences & Related Studies, QUEST, Nawabshah

Department of Basic Sciences & Related Studies

Asif Ali Shaikh, Department of Basic Sciences & Related Studies, MUET, Jamshoro, Pakistan

Department of Basic Sciences & Related Studies

Saifullah Abro, Department of Basic Sciences & Related Studies, MUET, Jamshoro, Pakistan

Department of Basic Sciences & Related Studies

Published
2021-12-27
How to Cite
Fatima, I., Shaikh, W., Shaikh, A. G., Shaikh, A., & Abro, S. (2021). The Spatial-Temporal Epidemiology Analysis of Tuberculosis Disease in Pakistan. Quaid-E-Awam University Research Journal of Engineering, Science & Technology, Nawabshah., 19(2), 60-67. https://doi.org/10.52584/QRJ.1902.10